The Revenge of Geography
Abstract
As the Idiom of technological advancement takes its
toll. The paper highlights a few poignant and emerging factors in the International
Relations theorization. It was conservatively maintained by the defense strategists
and the political leadership across the Global polity that foreign policy and the
Diplomacy are greatly determined by the “given” of Geography and terrain. The paper
brings to the fore, the theoretical formulations as advanced by Harold Mackinder,
Mahan and Haushofer find a place in the narrative. Then, the instances of the order
of the battle of Asal Uttar, ( 1965 India Pak War) and the case studies of the Indian
China border conflagration, Afghanistan’s Great Game and others find a mention in
the text. The argument that runs through the paper is that apart from the all determining
factor of geo strategy, technological advancements too must find a pride of place
as nations hob nob with each other on the high table of power, war and peace.
Introduction of the Theme
Traditionally speaking, it was ascertained and maintained
that Geography exists as a significant factor in the larger comprehension of International
relations, foreign policy and Diplomacy as it exists if we utilize the threescore
interchangeably. When there was a want of
aircraft, digital and cyber weaponry and on the whole, technological advancement
were not present then at that juncture. These circumstances made non navigable terrains,
mountainous tracts and deserts as natural barriers to border invasions and intrusions
as was the case with the eastern front in the Indian Himalayas.
An ambitious and challenging Book, the Revenge of Geography displays a formidable grasp of comptemporary world Politics and serves as a powerful reminder that it has been Planet’s geophysical configurations as much as the flow of competing religions and ideologies, that have shaped human conflicts, past and Present” MalAise Ruthven, The New York Times Review of Books.
Kaplan traces the history of the world’s hot spots by examining their climate,
topography and proximities to other embattled lands. He then applies the lessons
learned to present crises in Europe, Russia, China and the Indian sub-continent.
The result is a holistic interpretation of
the next cycle of conflict throughout Eurasia, a visionary glimpse into a future
which can be understood only in the context of temperature, land allotment and other
physical certainties. All in all the narrative serves as a brilliant rebuttal to
the thesis that globalism will pip the geographical factors to the post and such
timeless truths can be utilized to foresee and solve future mayhem and conflict. National Interest, the reputed magazine too pens that, “ Geography still
remains a determining a factor in the larger context of the Global ecosystem”
The author, Robert
Kaplan writes that, “I hitchhiked and rode through the landmass of Afghanistan where
in the land wastes and the South Asian grand canyons were a change from the tropical
wetlands and the riverine plains of North and central India. Thus, the author, reverend,
Robert Kaplan theorizes delectably upon the theme of a new theoretical firmament
though insipired from the likes of Mackinder, Mahan and Spykman and Haushofer. People
contended that those who reigned supreme in the Eurasian heartland would turn out
to be Global hegemons ruling over the rimlands.
Greater India
is akin to an ever changing and brittle map of the European Union where in the borders,
boundaries and frontiers keep on changing. In Bharat, we had the provinces challenging
the understanding of a larger conjoined nation state while in Europe, the all pervading
dissidence of ethnicities, clans and religious sub divisions made the entire sub
continent as rather brittle agency thus bringing to the fore, the all pervasive
influence of “ the center” as it reigned over “the periphery”……………..
It can be posited as an apt instance that, “Napoleon
too attacked Russia without considering the wintery swathes of the Russian steppes
which were serving as an ace weapon and an obstruction to the invading French forces.
“The same trend followed in World War II when the German Third Reich launched forth
into a threatening campaign to invade Russia. Once again the winter, inhospitable
terrain, huge distances and the mountains protected the Russians”. Thus, the terrain
can lead to an insurmountable obstacle in the pathway of the invading and conquistatding
enemy.”
Another instance can be cited from the pantheon of
the Summits which took place during World War II. “Ribbentrop met the Russian Foreign
Minister, Molotov in Berlin where in both the nations agreed to carve out a coalition
of willing in order to demolish the Western allies. The German dream was to extend
their overarch of influence in the Middle East till the Arabian sea so that they
could obstruct the British and western fleets travelling to Asia and South East
Asia and India.” Thus, the manner in which wars can be won and lost and spheres
of influence can be engendered is heavily impacted by the terrain, geography, topography
and the population of the nation or the region. In a manner, these factors devise
ways to effect victors and losers in the doughty game of real politique.
Battle of Asal Uttar: Geographically yours
The Battle of Asal uttar during the India Pakistan
war of 1965 also was greatly effected by chicanery and the hotch potch of a watery
farm which paved the way for an Indian military victory. The national daily, Indian
Express reports that. “The Battle of Asal Uttar was fought
in Punjab between September 8 and 10 in the 1965 Indo-Pak war resulting in heavy
losses of Pakistan Army and earning the area around village Asal Uttar the sobriquet
of ‘Graveyard of Patton tanks”. However, an average person in the country is still
unaware of how serious the Pakistani threat was in the attack that it mounted from
Khemkaran and how precariously situated was the defence put up by Indian Army. With
literally no reserves left after the deployment of 2nd Armoured Brigade, it was
a do or die situation for the Indian troops deployed in the battlefield between
Bhikhiwind and Khemkaran on the road that led to Kasur in Pakistan on one side and
Amritsar on the other.” The Indian centurion tanks did not ideally stand much of
a chance in front of the Pakistan’s Patton tanks. But, the Indian commander devised
a game plan and an apt strategy.
The Indian tanks were perched
in a sugarcane field and were amply hidden by the farm foliage. The Indian tanks
were positioned in a horse shoe magnet pattern waiting for the Pattons to enter
the trap of the horseshoe. Once the Pakistani Pattons of American origin entered
the horse shoe trap, the water from the nearby canal to create slush. As the Pattons
roared in they were caught in the watery slush of the sugar cane farm and could
not manoeuvre much. It was at this crucial moment that the Indian tanks fired endless
volleys of fire over the caught tanks. Many
of the Pakistani tanks were destroyed and the Pakistan’s troops made as POWs. The
battle was won and the tide of the 1965 battle changed towards India. Thus, terrain
and geography pave the way for a clever and victorious strategy for New Delhi.
Theorisations a New
Mackinder propounded a theoretical percept that the
key to the control and influence over the world and more specifically the Eurasian
land mass lay within the confines of terrain and geophray where in the natural resources and military manoeuvrability could be ascertained
by a deft comprehension and understanding of the Eurasian land mass. “The geopolitical
situation of the early 21st century gave a new boost to studies of the regional
structuralization principles for the geopolitical and geo-economic space of the
entire Eurasian continent.1 This revived the conceptions formulated by Halford Mackinder
in the early 20th century and his opponent, Nicholas Spykman, somewhat later. They
offered very original approaches to the regional geopolitical structuralisation
of the Eurasian continent and the identification of the functional value of its
spatial segments.”
The Book further informs us that, “Mackinder interpreted
the world historical processes based on the idea that the world was inherently divided
into isolated areas each of which had a special function to perform. He asserted
that the European civilization was the product of outside pressure. His account
of Europe and European history, regarding it as the result of many centuries of
struggle against invasions from Asia, proceeded from the same idea.2 He believed
that Europe’s advance and expansion was stimulated by the need to respond to the
pressure coming from the center of Asia. Accordingly, it was the Heartland (where
the continental masses of Eurasia were concentrated) that served as the pivot of
the world.”
The term “Greater” has become more frequently
used than before: Greater Europe,17 the Greater Middle East,18 Greater Central Asia,19
Greater China,20 etc. This approach is obviously rational, but the positions and
interests of the actors involved in the rivalry on the European geopolitical stage
also need to be conceptualized. This approach reflects the objective regularities
of the regional political systems’ development and interaction in Eurasia under
the conditions of globalization. However, the interests of the states that are part
of the regional subsystems, in dynamic and sustainable political, economic, and
socio-cultural development, cannot be realized without the necessary degree of their
functional openness and mutual involvement in the process which is underway.”
The Chinese Case Study
“Robert Kaplan writes that, “Heartland is a fascinating introduction to a pioneer of geopolitics. Halford Mackinder's trailblazing ideas have influenced international politics to this day. His concept that world domination depends on the control of the global "pivot area" or "heartland" - the centre of the large land mass of Europe and Asia - has informed the political tactics and wars in the Middle East and Eastern Europe through the decades. His theories have influenced politicians and political scientists for generations, most notably Zbigniew Brzezinski, adviser to a long line of U.S. presidents. In our times, the importance of Mackinder's heartland theory for the United States' fight to enforce global hegemony, Russia's struggle to stay independent and relevant on a world stage, and China's plans to establish a trade route between East and West, make Heartland essential reading for understanding our world.”
The single most significant irritant
that serves as a disabling factor happens to be the India China border dispute which
mars the cordiality in the India China relations. The Indian approach has been to
neglect the border dispute and then carry on with the trade and other Diplomatic
and political aspects of the relationship. It’s a well known fact that miles of
border separates the twin antagonist nations which is not recognized by the two
nations with the People’s Republic of China refusing to agree to the McMahon line
demarcation between New Delhi and Beijing. The Chinese stand which is age old happens
to be that the Chinese representative in the Shimla conference in 1913 was not allowed
entry inside the room while the Chinese and the British delegates confabulated inside
the room, leaving the Chinese diplomats as neglected entities. Thus, the Chinese
Diplomatic standpoint is that because of the non- participation of the Chinese side,
the legal veracity of the McMahon line as the LOC (Line of Actual Control) is tenacious.
Though mechanisms have been developed and have evolved over time to deliberate upon the claims and counter claims of India and china, nothing concrete has emerged out of the post Galwan valley incident apart from mutual decisions to demilitarise and deescalate in the conflict. The Galwan valley incident marked a turning point in the context of the India China ties and the larger health and stealth of the relationship between the two distrustful neighbours. The Indian Express has reported that, “The People’s Liberation Army had pitched tents and an observation post on India’s side of the LAC in Galwan. On the night of June 15, a disagreement over the continued presence of the PLA in that area led to the bloody clash. According to reports at the time, Col B Santosh Babu, commander of 16 Bihar (the majority of the troops at Galwan), who walked up to ask the Chinese to leave, was manhandled by the PLA troops. This led to an escalation and almost five hours of combat involving about 600 soldiers from both sides.” Still a realisation needs to be reached that merely ignoring the repeated patrol transgressions on the Indian territory and their utilisation of propaganda and attendant symbolic acts, need not be comprehended as“routinized rituals” or a commonly observed Chinese behaviour. The Chinese incursions amount to a violation of International Law and in a similar trend, they have been active in the incarceration of the Xinxiang province. Thus, china India relations remain a key reflection of the factor of terrain and geography in the relationship if there is any between the twin nations of the order of India and China.
The Afghani Instance
The instance of Afghanistan also creeps in with aplomb
as the key mountainous terrain, which straddles Kabul comes to the fore. One can
argue that Afghanistan is a land locked nation which has always been part of the
great game between colonial powers such as United Kingdom and Russia in order to
claim the territory and the resources of the besieged landmass of a nation. Robert
Kaplan writes that, “Whereas Mesopotamia, with large Urban clusters over a flat
landscape, is conducive to military occupation forces. Afghanistan in terms of its
geography , barely a country at all. It is riven by cathedral like mountain ranges
within its territory, which help seal divisions between Pashtuns, Tajiks and other
minorities, even as comparatively little in the way of natural impediments separates
Afghanistan from Pakistan or Afghanistan from Iran. Looking at the relief map, and
noting that more than half of the world’s 42 million Pashtuns live inside Pakistan,
one could conceivably construct a country called Pushnutistan, lying between the
Hindukush mountains and the Indus river, thus overlapping the Afghani and Pakistani
states.”
Kaplan writes that, “ An Afghanistan that falls under
the Taliban sway threatens to create a succession of radicalised Islamic societies
from the Indian Pakistani border to central Asia. This, would be in fact, a Greater
Pakistan giving Pakistan’s Inter service Intelligence Directorate the ability to create a clandestine Empire composed
of the likes of Jallaludin Haqanni, Gulbuddin Hikmatayar and Lashkar A Taiyabba,
able to confront India in the manner Hezbollah
and Hamas confront Israel. Conversely, an Afghanistan at peace and governed more
or less liberally from Kabul would give New Delhi the ability to extricate itself
from its historical nemesis from its north eastern frontier as well as to challenge
Pakistan on both its western and eastern borders. That is why during the 1980’s
India supported the Soviet puppet regime in Kabul of Mohammad Najibulah, which was
secular and even liberal compared with some of the pro Pakistani Islamist Mujahideen
trying to topple it: for the same reason India now supports Hamid Karzai’s Kabul
Government.” Afghanistan has been defined by Former American President Barrack Obama
as the most dangerous place on Earth as the nation state reminds one of a twilight
zone which resonates with violence, attrition and misery for the denizens of the
besieged nation, that is, Afghanistan.
A delving inside the Asiatic
strategic space itself informs us that, “ China has been helping to build or upgrade
ports around India: in Kyapau, Burma; Chittangog in Bangladesh Hambantota in Sri
Lanka and Gwadar in Pakistan. In all of these countries China is providing substantial
military and economic aid and political support. China, as we know, already has a great merchant
fleet and aspirations for a blue water Oceanic navy that will guard its interests and protect its trade routes between
the hydrocarbon rich West Asia and China’s Pacific Coast. This is occurring at the
same time that India has aspirations for a Monroe Doctrine style presence throughout
the Indian Ocean from southern Africa to
Australia. The greatly overlapping naval spheres of interest aggravate the border
issues in the Himalayan north that still are outstanding.” The futuristic possibility
of a Pakistani Chinese naval cooperation and collaboration has already fructified
in the region under the rubric of the CPEC ( China Pakistan Economic Corridor) and its here that the Indian naval port of Karwar
on the Arabian sea comes into play. The port and the energy pipeline that China
has built at Kyapyku in Burma have caused India to initiate its own port and energy
complex at Sittwe, fifty iles to the north as India and China quicken their competition
for routes and resources in western Indo China.
Conclusion
The paper is premised upon the seminal tome titled as, “Revenge of Geography,” written by Robert Kaplan. The arguments are that geography even in the vapid times of digitalisation and digitisation plays a significant role in the discernment and comprehension of world politics both n its geo political and geo economic aspect.Whereas borders indicate passport controls and fixed divisions of sovereignty, frontiers indicate a pre modern world of vaguer, more informal overlapping divisions. The greater Middle East is moving away from a world of borders and toward one of frontiers. Thus, the entity titled as a Map, which is the spatial representation of humanity’s division humanity’s division-the subject of realist writings in the first place. Maps don’t always do not tell the truth as is evident from the Han overtures on the India Chian borders where in the Chinese striving at renaing places in Arunchala Pradesh and Tibet and the clashes at the border which have occurred all the way from Sumdorong Chu, Doklam, Depsang all the way to Galwan, comes to the forefront. The very bold colorings of countries on the Map implies uniform control over hinterlands, which isn’t always the case. Akin to the Chinese hegemonic and expansionist strivings, the European names for large swathes in Africa show, in the words of the late British geographer John Brain Harley, how cartography can be a discourse of power in the instance of with colonial and imperialistic underpinnings. Just beneath the veneer of civilization lie the bleakest forces of human passion and thus the central musing in foreign affairs for the realists is: Who can do what to whom?.
Governance & Polity • 2 months ago
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