South China Sea Dispute: Way forward?

As the name suggests, South China Sea (SCS) is located south of Chinese mainland. It is a huge water body with an area of 3.5 million km². This area is under intense focus due to aggressive and overlapping claims made by China on others territorial waters. The growing interest in SCS is due to the discovery of oil and natural gas below the bed of SCS. It is also the hotbed for fishing industry as 12% of global fish catch comes from SCS. It is believed that there is 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas is in the SCS. 

Other than the abundance of natural resources, it plays a significant role in maritime trade and provides linkage to Indian and Pacific Ocean. Approximately world’s 30% of trade worth $3.4 trillion annually passes through SCS. It is the reason for the aggressive claims by China in SCS over other countries. No body would want to loose or share resources worth trillions of dollars. Vietnam, Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, and Taiwan. China  with the representation of "Nine Dash Line," claims over 90% of SCS. These claims made by China overlap the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) of the littoral nations of Vietnam, Philippines, and Brunei, and Malaysia. 

Chinese claim that they were the ones who originally discovered the “ stones and islands” located far off in the SCS during Han dynasty, which dates back to 206 BCE to 220 BCE. By using ancient historical ambiguous texts to their own advantage, Chinese claim SCS almost entirely.

According to the global commons theory, the high seas are regarded as a commonly shared property where no single individual can claim right over the resources. Although SCS does not fall in global commons, but it should be governed based on the basis of this theory so that rights of littoral nations in SCS are not compromised by China. In this whole scenario, China is the biggest shark, which in comparison is no match to small fishes (represented by Philippines, Vietnam, etc.) in the SCS.

In the due course of time, China has heavily militarized several islands in SCS, Eg- Spratly Islands group. China has placed (SAMS) surface-to-air missiles, hangers for fighter jets, radar systems, anti-cruise missiles, and other military facilities. Such a display of hard power on the islands near small nations like Philippines has not only traumatized them but made them feel utterly insecure in their own backyard waters. China is a country with deep pockets which has no parallels in the region.

China’s expansionist ambitions have endangered the livelihoods of people dependent on SCS. South-East (SE) Asian countries such as Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam rely on SCS for food security (fisheries), tourism, and trade. China has been continuously interfering in Philippines’ fishing and oil exploration activities. Chinese coast guard ship is notorious for harassing Philippine fishing vessels for fishing within their own EEZ. China has taken to water-cannoning of Philippines coast guard ships, blaring sounds and laser lights to push them out of EEZ.

These blatant aggressive actions of Chinese have not gone unnoticed. In 2016, Philippines took the case to PCA (Permanent Court of Arbitration) situated in The Hague. Based on United Nations Convention on Law of Sea (UNCLOS), The Hague invalidated the outrageous claims made by China under its 9-dash line claim. PCA also held China responsible for violating the sovereignty of Philippines. 2016 Ruling brought attention of the world towards China’s unethical means of expansion by building artificial islands and militarization of tiny islands. This has also lead to destruction of marine environment and coral reefs due to dredging and pollution. China quickly declared the ruling of The Hague as "null and void" as it is not a claimant member and hence has no authority to pass any ruling.

In 2002, ASEAN nations and China came to a common understanding and adopted the "Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the SCS". It was a non-binding code of conduct which China obviously did not follow. ASEAN nations support UNCLOS and 2016 Hague Ruling, and Freedom of Navigation. However, the ASEAN nations have been unsuccessful in building pressure on China. It is a country with very deep pockets. All the ASEAN countries have strong trading relations with China as it is their largest trading partner. Trade between China and ASEAN stood at $973.3 billion in 2022. Thus, none of the countries involved in South China Sea tension dare to confront China directly.

The smaller country nations involved in SCS disputes are not left to fend for themselves. US has a strong military presence in the Indo-Pacific. US has deployed warships, aircraft carriers and submarines in the region to counter China’s unstoppable military presence. US conducts several military exercises such as RIMPAC (Rim of the Pacific Exercise) which is the world's largest maritime exercise. US constantly monitors Chinese activities by conducting surveillance and reconnaissance missions. In 2023, Philippines renewed Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) allowing US troops to gain access to Philippines military bases near SCS. All these measures by US act as deterrence to Chinese coast guard and military. 

India is not a direct claimant to SCS but it is a supporter of free and open Indo-Pacific (FOIP). It is strategic vision of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) to promote open access into waters based on freedom of navigation and overflight, and Rule of Law. Rule of law means adhering to UNCLOS and seeking peaceful resolution of disputes and avoiding coercive and aggressive actions.. India supports The Hague Ruling 2016 and insists on respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity in SCS. India joined hands with US, Australia and Japan to form Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD). Actions of QUAD are mainly directed towards countering China's ever-growing presence and militarization of SCS.

India directly engages with ASEAN nations (like Vietnam, Malaysia, and Philippines) which are claimants in the SCS. India supports ASEAN's vision of "Free, Open and Inclusive Indo-Pacific". India works with littoral states of SCS to enhance capacity building and exercise freedom of navigation in the region. According to MEA, 55% of India’s trade passes through SCS and Malacca Strait. Hence, free and open India Pacific is in India’s favour. 

In line with ASEAN Centrality and Act East Policy, India continues to expand its maritime engagement. India visits friendly foreign nations located in SCS such as Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippines and Brunei to share experiences and best practices. India’s port calls with SCS littoral countries include subject matter expert exchanges with navies of host countries, cross-deck visits, maritime partnership exercises, cultural exchanges and other plethora of activities. 

In going ahead with resolution of disputes in SCS, ASEAN plays a key role as China is not ready to engage with non-claimants in SCS. ASEAN should work towards bringing China on the negotiation table to enforce legally binding CoC  (Code of Conduct). The onus falls on affected nations such as Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia and Brunei to call out China in public platforms for its flagrant violation of Rule of Law, Hague Ruling 2016 and FOIP. The external nations such as QUAD countries can act as mediators and provide required support such as military, infrastructure, capacity building for self-defence and surveillance to the claimant states. Such measures are crucial against China's unbridled expansionist ambition in SCS. China is obsessed with encroaching upon EEZ of littoral states in SCS. Hence, a collaborative strategy is the need of hour and build 360° pressure on China to amend its ways before the rivalries in SCS take the face of full blown maritime war.

This whole South China Sea dispute evokes an iconic woodblock print by Hokusai, "The Great Wave off Kanagawa". It is in the favour and best interests of claimant states and external actors to work collaboratively and not let the great wave erupt in SCS, which has the power to engulf the livelihoods and security and trade of several countries housing billions of people.